Michael Kanuka
Author Archives: Michael Kanuka

Coronavirus vs Interest Rates

coronavirus

It started in early March when, in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, Saudi Arabia and Russia initiated an oil price war – tumbling prices by 34% (down to $31.73 per barrel). Today this price war continues, with crude at only $20.71 per barrel. The pandemic and oil price combination has sent the stock market into a tailspin. With equity investors continuing their flight to safe-haven holdings, the DJIA has dropped almost 30% from the Feb. 12 high of 29,551.

Although 10-Year Treasuries (the rate that typically sets the direction of fixed mortgage rates) have averaged 2.27% over the past 5 years, a record low 0.318% 10-Year yield was recently reached.

But if mortgage rates usually reduce when investors flee the stock market, why did 30-year fixed mortgage rates increase from 3.15% to as high as 4.15% during this commotion???

For several reasons due to huge uncertainty, volatility and panic – all of which increased costs to lenders… which in turn were passed on to borrowers in the form of higher mortgage rates:

  • Profits to mortgage servicing companies (who manage borrowers’ monthly payments and escrows for lenders) reduced after many mortgages were repaid/refinanced early – i.e., servicing fees to lenders increased due to uncertainty regarding underlying value and content of their serviced mortgage portfolios
  • Pools of residential mortgages (mortgage-backed securities/MBS’s) became difficult to value given the higher probability of default or forbearance – so some investors are paying less to (or have stopped buying from) the lenders who are selling mortgages
  • Lenders, who promised rate locks to borrowers and sell their loans to investors after closing, are having to pay higher fees to hedge against rising rates (to protect loan value), and are subjected to margin calls when the value of their collateral reduces from Federal Reserve Treasury Bond purchases

Here's the Point: In a market with unprecedented volatility, there are several reasons why mortgage rates actually go in a direction opposite to what you might expect.

Should You Lock Your Interest Rate?

lock_in_rate

Good question! Maybe the best place to start is to read what the experts are saying. But even before that, you’ll need to determine who you think the experts are and which are the most reliable.

Let’s assume for the moment that the national agencies listed below are the experts – since most people generally tend to rely on them for making interest rate projections. But now let’s have a look at their track records…

At the beginning of each year listed below, they made predictions of what the 30-year fixed mortgage rates would be in the fourth quarter of the same year. You will see that their 2018 predictions were much better than their 2019 predictions (rates listed are for the most qualified borrowers):


2018 Q4

Prediction

2019 Q4

Prediction

Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)

4.8%

5.0%

Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA)

4.2%

4.8%

Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC)

4.6%

5.3%

National Association of Realtors (NAR)

5.0%

5.3%




Average Prediction of the Experts:

4.7%

5.1%




Year-End Actual 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates:

4.6%

3.7%

If you had relied on the “experts” and rushed to purchase a home for $200,000 (with a 20% down payment) and locked in your interest rate at 4.6% at the end of 2018 (thinking that rates were headed to 5.1% in 2019), your monthly mortgage payments of principal and interest would have been $820. But had you waited to lock at the 3.7% 2019 year-end actual mortgage rate, you would have saved $84 per month or just over $1,000 per year in mortgage payments.

If you had you ignored the experts and waited to lock your interest rate until the end of 2019 (instead of the end of 2018), you would have saved over $30,000 of interest costs over the life of a 30-year mortgage!

Here's the Point: Do your homework before locking your rate. But when the timing and the numbers work for you, don’t second guess your lock decision (because even the experts get it wrong).

Bridge Basics (Not the Card Game!)

Bridge Loan

A Bridge Loan can be an effective solution if you need to pull equity out of an existing property to purchase a new property. It can especially come in handy if you suddenly come across the perfect home to buy – but you have not yet sold your existing home (and you know that your income is likely insufficient to cover the mortgage payments on two properties at the same time).

Provided your credit score is at least 680, up to 75% of the value of your current, to-be-sold home may be extended to you via a Bridge Loan in one advance.  The Bridge Loan proceeds would need to be used to fully repay your existing mortgage balance, but you can also use any leftover loan proceeds towards the down payment on your to-be-purchased home.  The Bridge Loan structure allows you to make an offer on a new property, which is not contingent on the sale of your existing property.

Bridge Loans are generally due in 12 months, which is ample time to sell your existing property. No mortgage payments are required to be made on the Bridge Loan until your property is sold (at which time the principal would be paid back plus accrued interest). And, because there are no monthly Bridge Loan payment requirements, Bridge Loan obligations are not counted towards the lender’s debt-to-income ratio calculation. The same lender will then separately advance you a permanent loan of up to 80% of the value of your to-be-purchased primary residence.

Here's the Point: Bridge Loans are alive and well, and therefore you don’t necessarily need to have sold your current home before purchasing your dream home.

The Ultimate Step-by-Step Guide to Buying a House

From time to time, Ocean Mortgage receives requests from guest authors to contribute a post to our blog. Today, we welcome Emily Huddleson from REDFIN. We are pleased to post Emily's informative article for the benefit of our clients and potential clients; however, we wish to make it clear that Ocean Mortgage is not affiliated with Ms Huddleson or her company, and the publication of this article should not be construed as an endorsement or solicitation for Emily or her company. As always, nothing contained in our blog (or elsewhere in our website) should be construed as legal, financial, or other advice. You should always consult with appropriate professionals in your jurisdiction before purchasing a home and/or obtaining a loan.

If you are interested in having us publish an informative (not advertising or soliciting) article on our blog, please submit your proposal or a copy of your proposed article to  [email protected].


Buying a house for the first-time or even second time can be extremely exciting, but it can also be one of the most complex purchases of your life. Not knowing what to do when and how to start can make it even more daunting. To simplify things, we’ve broken down the timeline and created a step-by-step guide to help you navigate all the twists and turns along the way.

home-buying-timeline

6 Months Out

Assess your situation and get your financials in order. Before jumping into your home search, you must determine how much you can afford. You may have saved enough for your down payment, but don’t forget to account for closing costs, taxes, insurance, and any other unforeseen expenses that may arise when buying a house. This is also the time to make sure you’ve paid down your credit cards and that your credit score is in good condition, ensure you’ve filed your taxes, and that you have a paper trail for all recent major financial transactions.

Get pre-approved and find a mortgage lender. It’s important to apply for a mortgage pre-approval before you begin house hunting in earnest. Not only will this help keep you realistic about your options, but it also shows sellers that you’re a qualified and serious buyer. Don’t be tempted to just go with your current bank. It’s best to shop around to find the best rate and determine which mortgage and lender are right for you. Pre-approval letters do have an expiration date, so be aware of when yours is. It’s okay if you have to apply again later on.

3 Months Out

Find a buyer’s agent. A buyer’s agent is a licensed real estate agent who will represent you throughout your buying journey. A good buyer’s agent will be an expert on the home buying process, know your area inside and out, be familiar with local listing agents, and be a skilled negotiator.

Begin searching for homes. Ask the questions that will help set parameters for your home search. Are you looking to move to a new city such as Sacramento or Portland? Are you set on buying a house in a particular school district or neighborhood? How many bedrooms do you need? Do you want a single-family home or are you open to a townhouse, or maybe even a condo?

Attend open houses and go on tours. When you’re touring multiple homes, it’s easy to confuse different features or concerns so take notes as you’re touring. Don’t forget to pick your agent’s brain and ask for their input.

2 Months Out

Submit, or resubmit your pre-approval application. If you didn’t get a pre-approval letter, now is the time. Most letters last for 60 to 90 days. If your search extends beyond that, reapply.

Make an offer. You’ve found the home you want to call yours. Submit your offer as soon after touring the house as possible. Speed is of the essence in a competitive housing market with limited inventory. Talk with your agent about the terms of your deal and the competition you face to determine an offer price. You and your agent will work together to write and submit the offer letter to the seller’s agent.

Negotiate Home Price. Counter-offers are common and should even be expected when buying a house. Common counter-offers can include proposed changes to the price, closing date, or purchase contract contingencies. You may go back and forth with the seller a few times before you come to terms you both agree on.

Enter the closing process. Once you and the seller agree on the terms, you’ll enter the closing process, which usually takes 30 to 45 days. You’ll likely be in very close communication with your agent, lender, and escrow agency during this time.

1 Month Out

Deposit earnest money. Once the seller has accepted the offer, the earnest money will be deposited into an escrow account or held by the listing agent. Once the sale of the home has been completed, the earnest money you paid will be applied toward your closing costs.

Order your title. You’ll receive a preliminary title report from an escrow agent or attorney within a week after you reach mutual acceptance on an offer. Once the transaction closes, you will receive a final title policy.

Line up a home inspection. This step is critical as it allows you as the homebuyer to discover any material defects or necessary repairs before buying the house. Pay special attention to the results of the inspection because many states hold a buyer responsible for understanding and investigating issues raised during inspections. Also, if there is an inspection contingency, you can negotiate with sellers to cover the costs of certain repairs, ask for concessions, or back out of the sale.

Finalize the home sale. Now that you’ve completed all negotiations, it’s time to finalize and sign the purchase agreement with the seller.

Complete the mortgage application and book an appraisal. While you have been pre-approved, you still need to meet with your lender and finalize your mortgage application. The lender will also request an appraisal at this time.

1-2 Weeks Out

Receive Loan Approval. A licensed appraiser will determine the home’s market value based on comparable recent sales of homes in the neighborhood. After the appraisal has been completed, it will typically take around two weeks for the lender to get all the paperwork and approval completed.

Final walk-through. This is when you can verify that the condition of the house hasn’t changed and that all updates and repairs have been made. The final walk-through usually takes place 24 hours before the scheduled closing day.

Closing Day

Pay closing costs and sign all paperwork. Come to closing day prepared with your government-issued ID and any requested documents. Bring a cashier’s check for your down payment and be prepared to pay any closing costs. Now all that’s left to do is close escrow and sign the required paperwork.

Get your keys. Congratulations on your new home! Depending on if your house is turnkey ready or not, there might be some maintenance and remodeling you want to complete before moving in. You’ll also want to think about hiring movers, buying new furniture and appliances, setting up your utilities, etc. You’ll pay for these after the house is yours but may want to factor them into your budget or create a separate post-move budget.

Emily Huddleston is part of the content marketing team for REDFIN and enjoys writing about real estate trends and home improvement. Her dream home would be a charming Tudor-style house with large windows to let in lots of natural light.

Skip to content